At UTH, that has an impact on the ability to bet later. So, we know if the probability of winning is lower than the probability of losing, there is a chance that you will want to bet 4x. However, if you are only slightly more likely to win than lose, let the experts do all the hard work for you.
After I simulated 100,000 hands for each pocket hand, I sorted them by winning frequency. Any hand the player will lose more often than win is definitely not 4x and I lost it. I then looked at hands that were roughly 5% more likely to win than lose and created a program that randomly plays UTH to strategize at that time visit live KaptenPoker.
I played 10 million hands. Then I tried 4%, 6%, then 3% and 7%. There are only a few hands that change strategy each time. After several simulations, I found my strategy with pretty clear results.
I decided the K-8 offsuit was decent for 4x, but “marginally.” We know from watching people play UTH that many are a little nervous about the 4x bet. There’s a lot of money to contact. When you deal with AA or KK or AK, you feel a little more adventurous about it.
With the K-8 offsuit, many players just couldn’t do it. Are you killing yourself by going out? Not really. You are bound to spend a lot of money in the long run. If the K-8’s offsuit was the only case, you probably barely noticed. This hand will occur just under 1% of the time or once in about 110 hands (3-4 hours of play). The net cost to play it “safe” may be only a few cents in return.
The problem arises if you start doing this for many marginal hands and how you define marginal. A K-8 match will win 57% of the time (and lose 40%) and really isn’t that marginal. A player has to bet 4x almost half the time. If you do it 40% of the time (“right”, 40%), it will cost you a little, but will need less money to last.
Drop it to 25% and your bankroll could start out a little smaller, but the chances of ending up are much smaller!
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